(VENICE, Italy) -- One of the world's most iconic cities could be heavily impacted by climate change and sea level rise in the coming years, leading researchers to search for solutions on how to protect it.

Venice, the historic Italian city known for its canals that serve as water traffic corridors, has been said to be sinking for nearly a century. The site within the vicinity of the Venetian Lagoon has flooded increasingly over the past 150 years, according to a paper published in Scientific Reports on Thursday.

Historically, there have been 28 events in which seawater flooding impacted at least 60% of the city, according to the paper. Eighteen of those events have taken place in the last century.

Piero Lionello, a professor of atmospheric physics and oceanography at the University of Salento in Italy and native Venetian, has noticed an uptick in flooding events throughout his lifetime, he told ABC News.

"The rate has been quite impressive the last three decades," he said.

Climate experts are now calling for long-term planning to protect the city from rising sea levels over the next several centuries.

The Venetian Lagoon is a "special system" because it is so connected to the Adriatic Sea, said Lionello, the lead author of the paper.

Proposed strategies to prevent flooding as sea levels rise include movable barriers, ring dikes -- which are circular or oval-shaped embankments designed to protect localized areas from floodwaters -- or even closing the Venetian Lagoon and relocating the city, according to the paper.

Currently, the city is defended by a trio of movable barriers at the edge of the Venetian Lagoon. The MOSE project, installed in the 1990s, is a system of mobile flood barrier shields as tall as a five-story building that can be raised to separate the lagoon from the Adriatic Sea during high tides.

The system allows the waterways of Venice to function normally during high tide and has prevented flood disasters from storm surge. But it won't be sufficient in the future, Lionello said.

"The present system, it will certainly be become inadequate," he said.

The existing movable barriers may be effective against sea level rise up to 1.25 meters, or about 4.1 feet, according to the paper. But this benchmark is likely to be exceeded by the year 2300 under a low-emissions scenario due to rising global temperatures and ground subsidence -- the gradual sinking of the ground -- the researchers said.

Dikes may be necessary to protect Venice's city center from the rest of the lagoon, according to the paper. The dikes would consist of walls surrounding the city, separating it from the lagoon, Lionello said.

Construction of dikes could cost between $600 million and $5.3 billion, according to the paper.

A "super levee" that could cost more than $35 billion to construct may be needed to close the lagoon and protect the land that is already below sea level.

If sea levels rise enough, it may be necessary for the city's residents and historic landmarks to be moved inland, the researchers said. Relocating the city could be necessary beyond a 4.5-meter, or nearly 15-foot, sea level rise, which is projected to occur after 2300 under a high emissions scenario, according to the paper. Relocating the city could cost up to $118 billion, according to the researchers.

This solution is the most "provocative" and would involve moving individual buildings and monuments inland, Lionello said.

"You can preserve a building. You can have different solution to keep people living there, but it will be a completely different Venice from the Venice that we have now," Lionello said.

The system of mobile barriers has been working overtime, according to officials. The MOSE barriers were lifted from the seabed to stop water from the Adriatic Sea from entering the lagoon 31 times during a six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024.

Climate scientists have predicted a steady rise in sea levels in the Adriatic Sea -- with the lagoonal ecosystem in Venice experiencing relative sea level rise of about 2.5 millimeters per year, a 2021 study found.

Over the past 60 years, high tides in the Venetian Lagoon have become more frequent.

Between 1870 and 1949, 30 high tides exceeded 1.1 meters -- or 3.6 feet -- the level above which the MOSE barrier system is activated, according to the Venice Tide Study Center. There were 76 such high tides between 2015 and 2024 alone.

Rapid action to protect the city of Venice from climate change is “essential,” especially since the construction of large-scale interventions could take decades, the researchers said.

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(LONDON) -- At least 16 people were killed and another 100 were injured in Ukraine as Russia targeted the country with a "massive" drone and missile attack on Wednesday and into Thursday morning, Ukrainian officials said.

Russia launched almost 700 drones and 19 ballistic missiles, along with cruise missiles, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Ukraine shot down about 636 drones and "some" of the missiles, he added, saying, "Unfortunately, not all."

At least 16 people were killed across Ukraine, officials said. Zelenskyy said at least 100 people had been reported wounded "as of now."

"Tragically, there are fatalities in Odesa, Kyiv, and Dnipro," he said in a social media post. "Among those killed is a boy -- he was 12 years old. My condolences to the families and loved ones."

Most of the missiles targeted Kyiv, the capital, the president said, but damage and deaths were also reported across the country. Some missiles or drones that made it through Ukraine's defenses struck and damaged residential buildings, Zelenskyy said.

"Another night has proven that Russia does not deserve any easing of global policy or lifting of sanctions," Zelenskyy said. "Russia is betting on war, and the response must be exactly that: we must defend lives with all available means, and we must also apply pressure for the sake of peace with the same full force."

Russia has chosen to "deliberately terrorise civilians" with its attacks on residential areas, Antonio Costa, the European Council president, said on Thursday. The EU would continue to "increase pressure" on Moscow, he said.

"Russia must stop this war of terror," Costa said. "A comprehensive, just, and lasting peace for Ukraine based on the principles of the U.N. Charter and international law must be achieved."

Russian officials said on Thursday that Ukraine launched its own barrage of drones targeting several areas in Russia. Moscow said its military downed more than 200 drones. At least one Ukrainian drone struck a port on Russia's Black Sea coast, along with other coastal cities, the local governor said.

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(NEW YORK) -- The husband of a woman who was reported missing in the Bahamas after going overboard on a dinghy was questioned again by police on Monday as he awaits any charging decision in connection with her disappearance, according to his attorney.

Lynette Hooker, 55, of Michigan, has been missing for over a week. She and her husband, Brian Hooker, 58, had departed Hope Town on the Abaco Islands for their yacht, Soulmate, in Elbow Cay around 7:30 p.m. on April 4, when bad weather caused Lynette Hooker to fall overboard, her husband told authorities.

Brian Hooker was arrested on Wednesday in connection with his wife's disappearance and interviewed by Bahamian police for approximately three hours on Friday. Police subsequently requested an extension to give them until Monday evening to make any charging decision, according to his attorney, Terrel Butler.

He was questioned by police again on Monday for about an hour, according to Butler, who said investigators did not present any new evidence. She also said police have not given Brian Hooker any updates on the search for his wife since his arrest. 

Police have until 7:20 p.m. ET Monday to charge or release him, according to Butler.

Butler said Brian Hooker is considered a suspect in his wife's disappearance and denies any wrongdoing.

Following his initial interview on Friday, Butler said Brian Hooker was "questioned in relation to causing harm, which resulted in her death."

"He definitely denies causing her death and he's still asking about her and is hopeful that she will be recovered," she continued, saying they have not been informed of any evidence that her body has been recovered. 

The attorney said Brian Hooker is "heartbroken" over the disappearance of his wife of 25 years and that his arrest has been "traumatic."

His arrest came after multiple sources told ABC News a criminal investigation had been opened into whether there was any wrongdoing in the case. The U.S. Coast Guard is leading the probe, according to a source familiar with the investigation.

In a statement posted to social media last Wednesday, Brian Hooker said "unpredictable seas and high winds" caused his "beloved Lynette to fall from our small dinghy" near Elbow Cay.

"Despite desperate attempts to reach her, the winds and currents drove us further apart. We continue to search for her and that is my sole focus," he said.

Brian Hooker told police that his wife was holding the boat key when she went overboard, causing the 8-foot hard-bottom dinghy's engine to shut off, according to the Royal Bahamas Police Force. He subsequently paddled the boat back to shore, arriving at a marina at around 4 a.m. on April 5, and reported his wife overboard, police said.

The Hookers documented their sailing travels on social media under the name "The Sailing Hookers."

Lynette Hooker's daughter, Karli Aylesworth, has called for a "full and complete investigation" into her mother's disappearance.

She told ABC News her stepfather, Brian Hooker, told her that her mom "fell out of the boat and that he threw a life jacket to her or something, and he doesn't know if she got it or not."

Lynette Hooker's mother, Darlene Hamlett, told ABC News she hopes "we find the truth" amid the investigation and alleged the couple have had a volatile relationship. 

"I just want the truth to come out and I'm hoping that they can do that, and I hope they find her and that that will help clear up all of this," she said.

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(PARIS and LONDON) -- Foreign leaders expressed hope for a full peace deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in their reactions to Tuesday's two-week ceasefire, which was first announced by President Donald Trump and later confirmed by Iranian officials.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a post to X that the ceasefire agreement "will bring a moment of relief to the region and the world. Together with our partners we must do all we can to support and sustain this ceasefire, turn it into a lasting agreement and re-open the Strait of Hormuz."

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani likewise suggested the ceasefire was "a very positive development" which "moves us toward a peace agreement -- for the civilian population, for the region, and for Israel -- but also for our economy."

German Friedrich Merz thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts, adding in a post to X, "The aim now is to negotiate a lasting end to the war. We are in close coordination with our partners on this matter."

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said the ceasefire brought "much-needed de-escalation" and said that further negotiations are "crucial."

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has been a prominent European critic of the war, said in a post to X that the ceasefire was "welcome news," but added, "Momentary relief must not make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost."

"The Spanish government will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket," Sanchez added. "What is needed now: diplomacy, international law, and PEACE."

French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that the situation in Lebanon -- another theater of the conflict in which Israel is fighting against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia -- is "critical."

Macron said the ceasefire extended to Lebanon, as did Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said overnight that Lebanon was not included in the agreement. Israel continued intense strikes in Lebanon, including on Beirut, on Wednesday.

Macron called the ceasefire "a very good thing" and said the question of Lebanon is "one of the most delicate.” Hezbollah, Macron said, made a "strategic error" by attacking Israel and dragging Lebanon into the regional crisis, but said Israel's strikes and occupation of southern Lebanon "cannot be a long-term response."

Persian Gulf and other regional nations also welcomed the ceasefire in Iran, though several reported fresh Iranian drone and missile attacks on Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Ministry expressed its support for the pause in a statement posted to X, while Qatar's Foreign Ministry described the ceasefire as "an initial step toward de-escalation." Doha also stressed "the necessity for the Islamic Republic of Iran to take the initiative to immediately cease all hostile acts and practices."

Oman -- traditionally a mediator of U.S.-Iranian talks -- said in a Foreign Ministry statement that it affirmed "the importance of intensifying efforts now to find solutions capable of ending the crisis at its roots and achieving a permanent cessation of the state of war and hostile acts in the region."

Jordan's Foreign Ministry in a post to X "emphasized the importance of opening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring freedom of international navigation without restrictions in accordance with international law."

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said in a post to X that the news "undoubtedly brought relief to the hearts of millions of peace-loving people across all corners of the earth," adding that Cairo valued Trump's "decision to heed the voice of reason."

The Turkish Foreign Ministry released a statement expressing its backing for the peace process, adding, "We will continue to extend all necessary support for the successful conclusion of the negotiations to be held in Islamabad," referring to Friday's planned talks.

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(LONDON) -- As President Donald Trump pulled back from threats to annihilate "a whole civilization" when the Iranian regime agreed to a ceasefire and open the critical Strait of Hormuz, some people in the Islamic Republic expressed relief after juggling feelings ranging from despair to doom.

Trump had given the Iranian regime a deadline of 8 p.m. ET Tuesday -- which would have been Wednesday, April 8, at 3:30 a.m. in Tehran -- for the Iranian government to strike a peace deal or risk the destruction of all bridges and power plants in Iran.

He later extended the deadline to two more weeks as Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz and work to forge a peace deal.

Sohreh, a 33-year-old journalist and resident of Tehran, told ABC News she felt an immediate sense of "relief" when she heard that a ceasefire agreement had been brokered.

"My heart was about to stop," Sohreh said in a written message to ABC News of the hours she and other Iranian citizens spent on Tuesday bracing for the massive U.S. to strike on its power plants, bridges and infrastructure before the attack was called off. "I cried all day for Iran and prayed to a God I don't believe in: 'A miracle, please, send a miracle. I can't live after the destruction of Iran.'"

Leading up to the ceasefire announcement, Iranians who have been in contact with ABC News throughout the conflict, which began with a Feb. 28 U.S.-Israel joint attack, recalled moments of joy as it appeared the Iranian regime was about to be toppled and disappointment that the Islamic Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) had refused to give up the fight.

An internet blackout imposed by the regime has made it challenging to communicate with people inside Iran, so it's difficult to gauge how people in the country are feeling. Some have managed to get messages to ABC News.

"I am against the regime and I want them gone with every cell of my body. I have participated in the protests against the regime. But by no means I agree with a foreign power destroying what has been built by my people, for my people, and for the future of our children," Fatemeh, a 40-year-old engineer who lives in Tehran, told ABC News in a written statement on Monday.

Citing security reasons, Iranians like Fatemeh and Sohreh who have communicated with ABC News, spoke on condition that their real names not be used.

Sohreh recalled a rollercoaster of emotions since the conflict began, from hope that the regime would be toppled to despair that it was hanging on and prolonging the pain of regular Iranians.

"I danced so much to the news of Khamenei's death, so much that my legs hurt and I fell," Sohreh said in a message to ABC News on Monday, referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader, who was assassinated in a strike on the first day of the conflict.

But as the war dragged on, Sohreh said she battled doubts that the U.S.-Israel attacks would bring the regime to its knees. "We ask ourselves what if the war continues?" she said.

"When they hit Asaluyeh, everyone was feeling terrible," Sohreh said of Monday's strike by Israel Defense Forces on Iran's southern petrochemical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf port city of Asaluyeh. "We wonder what to do if they hit the infrastructure. They don't belong to the Islamic Republic. They are built by our own children. They belong to Iran and the future of Iran."

On Tuesday morning, Trump posted an ominous message on his social media platform, saying, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again."

"I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," Trump wrote. "However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?"

During a news conference on Wednesday morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared "a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.

"A capital V military victory," said Hegseth, adding that the U.S. military had "achieved every objective."

Hegseth said that prior to the ceasefire being announced, the U.S. military was prepared to carry out the threat Trump made on Tuesday morning.

"Had Iran refused our terms, the next target would have been their power plants, their bridges and oil and energy infrastructure, targets they could not defend and could not realistically rebuild. It would have taken them decades. And we were locked and loaded," Hegseth said.

He added, "President Trump had the power to cripple Iran's economy in minutes, but he chose mercy. He spared those targets because Iran accepted the ceasefire under overwhelming pressure."  

Trump's ominous statement on Tuesday came after he told reporters on Monday during the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, "The Iranian people, when they don't hear bombs go off, they're upset."

"They want to hear bombs because they want to be free," Trump said without attributing where he was getting his information from.

He went on to claim that the only reason Iranian civilians have not taken to the streets en masse to demonstrate against the regime is that "they will be shot immediately, and that's an edict. That's in writing."

Leila, a 36-year-old resident of Tehran who works as a manager of a shipping company, said she agreed with Trump, telling ABC News on Monday that when she doesn't hear bombs, she feels "upset." Leila, who described herself as anti-regime, said she longs for the day she sees American soldiers in Iran to save them.

In an earlier message Leila sent to ABC News on March 30, she said, "We don't have fear from the missile attacks, we just get very happy to watch them burning the bases of the IRGC."

Darius, a 38-year-old anthropologist from Tehran, told ABC News in a message sent on March 25 that he was initially anti-regime, but as the bombing continued, his opinion of the regime had started to change.

"The noise of the bombs and the fact that they are actually killing a lot of civilians pushes us more towards let's say rallying around the flag," Darius wrote. "We are fighting this war as a country and even though the Iranian state is not my cup of tea and even though I detest many of the things they do, still, I prefer to stand by their side against a Nazi in the White House."

At least 3,546 people, including 244 children and 1,616 other civilians, have been killed in Iran due to the U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News agency reported on Sunday.

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(LONDON) -- Ukraine launched more cross-border attack drones than Russia in a one-month period for the first time since the start of the ongoing war in 2022, according to daily data published by the Ukrainian Air Force and Russian Ministry of Defense, which was analyzed by ABC News.

Russia's defense ministry reported downing 7,347 Ukrainian drones during March, the highest monthly total ever reported by Moscow and an average of 237 craft each day. The defense ministry only publishes figures of Ukrainian drones it claims were shot down.

Ukraine's air force, meanwhile, said its forces faced 6,462 Russian drones and 138 missiles of various types across the course of the month, of which 5,833 drones and 102 missiles -- around 90% of drones and just under 74% of missiles -- were intercepted or suppressed.

Ukraine, therefore, faced a daily average of just over 208 drones and four missiles during March, according to the data published by Kyiv.

ABC News cannot independently verify the data released by either Russia or Ukraine. It is possible that both sides may seek to exaggerate the effectiveness of their air defenses, or to amplify the attacks against them as proof that their enemies are not interested in pursuing a peace deal, experts have suggested.

The combined tally of 6,600 Russian drones and missiles reported by Ukraine's air force across the month marks a new record high for a single month of Russian long-range attacks.

Ukraine's air force publishes what it says is a daily tally of Russian drone and missile strikes, including information as to how many munitions were intercepted and how many hit targets.

Russia launched the month's largest overall attack in a 24-hour period by either side. Ukraine's air force said Moscow launched 948 drones and 34 missiles into the country on March 24.

Long-range drone and missile strikes have been a key element of the conflict as both Kyiv and Moscow seek to degrade the other's economy and undermine their ability to prosecute and fund the ongoing war. The strikes have continued despite the resumptions of U.S.-brokered peace talks.

Russia has thus far been able to launch more drones and missiles into Ukraine, with Ukrainian leaders citing Moscow's nightly barrages as a severe threat to the country's strategic position. But March's data suggests the balance may be shifting more in Ukraine's favor, as Kyiv's long-term efforts to expand its drone and missile capabilities bear fruit.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been clear on Kyiv's plans to expand Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.

"Our production potential for drones and missiles alone will reach $35 billion next year," Zelenskyy said in October. "Despite all the difficulties, Ukrainians are creating their national defense product that, in certain parameters, already surpasses many others in the world."

"Never before in history has Ukrainian defense been so long-range and so felt by Russia," Zelenskyy added. "We must make the cost of war absolutely unacceptable for the aggressor -- and we will."

To date, the majority of Ukrainian strikes are believed to have been conducted using relatively cheap, Ukrainian-made drones. Increasingly, Ukraine is also using interceptor drones designed and built by Ukrainian companies to intercept incoming Russian strike drones.

Ukraine is now producing its own cruise missiles -- most notably the Flamingo, which Kyiv says has a range of more than 1,800 miles -- but its drone arsenal still accounts for the vast majority of projectiles reported shot down by the Russian defense ministry, according to daily data published by Moscow.

Over the past year, Ukraine has put a special focus on attacking Russian oil refining and transport facilities, hoping -- according to Ukrainian leaders -- to cut into a key funding stream for Moscow and its military.

Ukraine's most high-profile attacks of March came at Russia's Baltic Sea ports of ‌Ust-Luga and Primorsk -- key oil export hubs. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the strikes as "terrorist attacks."

Zelenskyy in February said Russia's energy sector is "a legitimate target" for attacks by Ukraine, because Russia uses revenue from sales of oil to procure weapons used to attack Ukraine.

"We do not have to choose whether we strike a military target or energy," Zelenskyy said while addressing students at the National Aviation University in Kyiv. "He sells oil, takes the money, invests it in weapons. And with those weapons, he kills Ukrainians," Zelenskyy said of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian officials have broadly sought to downplay the Ukrainian attacks, with most reports of damage or casualties attributed to falling debris from intercepted drones, rather than craft that found their mark. When Russian officials do acknowledge damage, they often describe the strikes as “terrorist attacks.”

But plenty of publicly available information -- including video footage and photographs of the attacks -- indicate that a significant number of Ukrainian drones do penetrate Russian air defenses and impact at sensitive military and industrial sites.

Meanwhile, drone incursions into neighboring countries -- among them NATO allies -- have raised concerns of the war spilling over into non-combatant nations.

NATO aircraft are regularly scrambled in NATO nations like Poland and Romania in response to Russian drone attacks along Ukraine's western borders.

Allied officials have reported Russian drone violations in Romania, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Russian drones have also overflown Moldova, which is not a NATO member. Russian officials have denied responsibility for such incursions.

Stray Ukrainian drones have been reported falling in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

ABC News’ Fidel Pavlenko contributed to this report.

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(NEW YORK) -- When Sundus al Kurd and her daughter Bissan were separated at the start of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023, she wasn't sure she'd see her again. Bissan was only a few days old when her mother allowed her to be medically evacuated from the Gaza strip to Egypt.

The premature baby's life was saved, along with others, by the World Health Organization and Palestinian Red Crescent during the height of the conflict, but now the two have been reunited.

"After all this time, my daughter is finally back in my arms!" al Kurd, a young Palestinian mother, exclaims as she held her child for the first time in over two years.

"Every day, I lived with fear -- fear that I might never hold her again, fear that she might forget me. But the moment I held her in my arms again, it felt like she had never been away. That moment was complete joy!" the 27-year-old al Kurd told ABC News.

Bissan, who has spent the last 2 1/2 years in Egypt, had been one of 33 premature babies trapped inside the Al Shifa hospital as the Israeli military laid siege to it in November 2023.

"Being reunited with my daughter is something I cannot fully describe. It is a mix of relief, love, and something deeper -- like life returning to me after being paused for years," al Kurd said.

"The first night we spent together was very emotional. I couldn't sleep. I kept watching her, holding her, making sure she was really there beside me. I was afraid to close my eyes, as if it was all a dream that might disappear," she said.

Bissan's life had been in imminent danger in November 2023, doctors said. The neonatal unit she was in at Al Shifa hospital was running out of fuel and oxygen, cut off by the Israeli army, which had encircled the hospital, saying that Hamas had a hidden command center in its precincts, something both Hamas medical teams there strongly denied.

"They were meant to die without incubators, without oxygen, without water, but they survived every single stage of this terrible reality," Dr. Ahmed Mokhallalati, the former head of plastic surgery at Al Shifa Hospital, told ABC News.

Mokhallalati was one of the few doctors who remained at Al Shifa throughout the Israeli siege.

"Most of the doctors were surgeons, not even pediatricians, but we felt we had to do our best to keep these kids alive," he said. "We felt these kids were like our own babies. Every morning, we would go just to make sure they were still alive."

He said that the extreme danger of the situation forced some parents to abandon their babies.

"There were no parents because the hospital was bombed and people were forced to flee to save their other children," Mokhallalati said. "In the calculus of survival, mothers fled with the children who could run and left behind those who could not, making an impossible choice."

The premature babies were left fighting for their lives for days, with one doctor and six nurses caring for them in ever-worsening conditions, he said.

"We did not know their names, we did not know their parents. They had no one to take care of them. They were wearing only small wristbands, usually with their mothers' names, and that was the only thing we knew about them," Mokhallalati said.

Not all the babies survived those difficult days. Five died as the team struggled to keep them fed and warm, but Mokhallalati was amazed that so many of the babies made it.

"They were meant to die at many stages but they survived every single challenge," adding, "They were the only feeling of hope we had in all of this chaos and destruction."

On Nov. 19, 2023, they were rescued after the WHO and the Palestinian Red Crescent were given access to the hospital. They carried the precious cargo through a war zone to a hospital in Rafah, in southern Gaza, before taking them across the border to Egypt, officials said.

"Twenty-eight were evacuated to Egypt, but seven more died there due to the difficult conditions, leaving 21 survivors. Of those, 11 have now returned on March 30, while four others came back earlier when Rafah crossing opened, and six remain in Egypt with their families," Dr. Ahmed Al-Farra, the head of pediatrics and neonatal care at Nasser Hospital in Gaza, told ABC News.

Among those returning was 2-year-old Azzhar Kafarna. Her mother, Heba Saleh, described the ordeal of their separation to ABC News.

"For two and a half years, I felt something missing all the time," she said.

"I missed everything -- her first smile, her first steps, even the little things that any mother waits for. I used to imagine her ... how she looks now, how her voice sounds, and if she would recognize me when we finally meet," Saleh said.

She was nervous about their reunion, "When I saw her again, I didn't know what to feel. I just hugged her tightly. It felt like I was holding all the days we lost in that one moment."

Al-Farra examined all the toddlers when they returned to Gaza this week.

"All of the children are in generally good condition, with normal weight and growth, but many are facing complications linked to extreme prematurity," he said.

Al-Farra says many of them, "have vision problems and need glasses because their eye nerves were not fully developed," like Bissan, who wears a bright red pair of spectacles.

However, not all of them have come back to happy reunions.

"I don't think all of these children have parents to return to. Some of their families were likely killed during the war," Al-Farra said.

"In one case, there is real confusion over the child's identity, with more than one person claiming the baby. We are still trying to identify the family, but without access to DNA testing in Gaza, we cannot confirm who the child belongs to," he said.

Fear returning to Gaza

Both the mothers ABC News spoke with were nervous about their children returning to Gaza.

"As a mother, I feel everything at once. I'm happy she's finally with me ... but at the same time, I feel guilty, even though I had no choice. I keep thinking about all the moments I wasn't there for." Saled said.

"And of course, I'm worried about raising her in Gaza. I want her to feel safe, to live a normal life, but the situation here is not easy," Saled said.

That sentiment was echoed by al Kurd.

"I am also worried. My daughter has never heard the sound of bombing before. I am afraid of how she might react if she experiences it here in Gaza. This fear is always in my heart."

"I wish for my daughter to have a better future, a life that is safer and more stable than the one we are living now," al Kurd said.

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(WASHINGTON) -- A U.S. fighter jet appears to have been shot down by Iran over Iranian territory, American officials confirmed to ABC News, marking a new and potentially dangerous point in the conflict.

One crew member aboard the downed two-seater F-15E has been rescued, according to two U.S. officials. The status of the other crew member is unknown, according to the official, and the search and rescue effort continues.

Combat search and rescue missions have become relatively rare for U.S. forces after more than a generation of near-total air dominance, with American aircraft typically operating with limited threats to aircraft in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The early indications that the U.S. fighter was brought down by enemy fire would mark the first time Iran has successfully downed a manned American aircraft in the war, which started in February.

In late March, an American F-18 fighter jet narrowly dodged an Iranian surface-to-air missile, according to a U.S. official. Earlier that month, an American F-35, the Pentagon’s most advanced stealth fighter jet, had to make an emergency landing after being struck by Iranian fire. Three F-15s were also brought down over Kuwait in a friendly fire episode earlier in the war, though all six pilots ejected safely, according to U.S. officials.

There are photos of the fighter jet that were released by Iranian state media that have not been independently verified by ABC News.

President Donald Trump has been briefed on the downed fighter jet, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Another U.S. official said Trump has been briefed on the rescue and condition of the recovered crew member.

Hegseth, Trump touted American air dominance over Iran

The incident comes after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and other U.S. officials have said that Iran's military capabilities have been severely crippled and that the U.S. has "total air dominance" over Iran.

Trump, in a primetime address to the nation earlier this week, said the U.S. was "nearing completion" of its military objectives and that Tehran's anti-aircraft abilities had been decimated.

"We’ve done all of it. Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten," Trump said in his speech on Wednesday night.

"They have no anti-aircraft equipment," Trump added in his remarks. "Their radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force."

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has made a number of false claims about U.S. aircraft being downed but the U.S. has pushed back on those.

Iran has maintained at least some ability to continue with attacks targeting U.S. facilities in the Middle East and other countries in the region, wounding more than 300 U.S. service members, according to U.S. officials. The number of wounded has increased at a relatively steady rate each week, data reviewed by ABC News shows. Thirteen service members have been killed in action since the war began five weeks ago, according to Pentagon data.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with whom Trump has said he is negotiating, taunted the U.S. over the missing crew member in a social media post on Friday.

In the post, Ghalibaf suggested that the U.S. war effort had shifted from pursuing "regime change" to trying to locate and rescue downed pilots.

Ghalibaf was the first top authority of the Islamic Republic to comment on the missing crew members.

Trump told ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl in a phone call earlier this week that the new leadership is better than what Iran had before.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney called the Iranian attack "disturbing" in an interview on ABC News Live.

"As a war like this drags on, it becomes increasingly likely that some incident like this happens. It's disturbing for a couple of reasons. One is it potentially represents a major escalation. If the missing crew member remains missing, huge political pressure in the United States to do anything to find that person. I dare say they'll be uncompromising," Ratney told ABC News Live's Elizabeth Schulze on Friday. "The other problem is it becomes just a huge political preoccupation in the United States. It becomes the sole story anybody thinks about. At the same time, the war is still going on, and there's a lot of crises globally at this point."

What do pilots do to prepare for being shot down?

Pilots undergo training in SERE -- which stands for Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape. It's a program designed to prepare them for the possibility of isolation behind enemy lines.

Under survival training, airmen are taught to stabilize themselves in the immediate aftermath of an incident, administering self-aid if wounded and securing basic necessities such as shelter, water and food, according to publicly available Air Force training materials.

Survival training often dictates the pilot leave the crash area, as it’s likely to be a focal point for hostile forces.

"To stay in the vicinity of the crash or parachute landing site may lead to capture,” an Air Force training manual on pilot survival training says. 

Evasion training follows -- during which pilots learn how to move undetected through hostile terrain, according to the training materials. Pilots learn to navigate using maps and compasses, as well as natural cues such as stars and terrain features including rivers, bridges and other landmarks to orient themselves and move toward friendly forces.

The curriculum also includes resistance techniques aimed at helping troops endure interrogation and psychological pressure if captured. Finally, escape training focuses on recognizing vulnerabilities in captivity and exploiting opportunities to break free, according to the training materials.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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(WASHINGTON) -- U.S. officials have issued a new warning to Americans still in Iraq, advising them to leave the country immediately as Iraqi terrorist militia groups aligned with Iran may "intend to conduct attacks" in central Baghdad.

"U.S. citizens should leave Iraq now," said the alert issued on Thursday by the United States Embassy and Consulate in Iraq, which has previously issued warnings for Americans to leave the country due to security risks.

The new alert comes as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has entered its second month.

The security alert also came just days after an American journalist, Shelly Kittleson, was kidnapped in broad daylight on a busy street in Baghdad, allegedly by an Iran-linked militia group.

"Iraqi terrorist militia groups aligned with Iran may intend to conduct attacks in central Baghdad in the next 24-48 hours," the U.S. Embassy's alert said.

The embassy's statement added that Iran and Iran-aligned terrorist militias have already conducted "widespread attacks against U.S. citizens and targets associated with the United States throughout Iraq, including the Iraqi Kurdistan Region."

The alert cautioned Americans to be aware that militia groups "may claim to be associated with the Iraqi government."

"Terrorists may carry identification denoting their status as Iraqi government employees," according to the alert.

In addition to U.S. citizens, terrorist militias might also target businesses, universities, diplomatic facilities, energy infrastructure, hotels, airports and "other locations perceived to be associated with the United States," according to the alert.

While telling U.S. citizens to leave the country immediately, U.S. officials also said the only escape routes out of Iraq are overland to Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Turkey because the airspace is closed, preventing commercial airlines from flying out of Iraq.

"Local ground transportation options are functioning. Americans should depart now via one of these overland routes," according to the alert.

For the time being, the U.S. Mission in Iraq remains open. But the alert advised Americans not to go there.

"Do not attempt to come to the Embassy in Baghdad or the Consulate General in Erbil in light of significant security risks," the alert said.

The search for Kittleson, 49, a freelance journalist originally from Wisconsin, continued on Thursday, according to the Iraqi Ministry of Interior.

"We have no answer or explanation," the interior ministry said in a statement on Thursday about Kittleson's abduction.

In a security camera recording verified by ABC News and confirmed by Iraq's interior ministry to show the moment Kittleson was kidnapped on Tuesday, the journalist is seen standing on a sidewalk as a silver car approaches before she is pushed towards the car, which then quickly speeds away.

One suspect alleged to be involved in the kidnapping was arrested when one of the cars fleeing the scene crashed and overturned, according to Iraq's interior ministry. Kittleson had been forced into another car that got away.

Dylan Johnson, assistant secretary of state for global public affairs for the State Department, said in a statement on Wednesday that the suspect has ties to the Iranian-aligned militia group Kataib Hezbollah.

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(LONDON) -- President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kicked off their joint military campaign against Iran in late February, urging the fall of the Islamic Republic.

"When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations," Trump said, addressing Iranians in announcing the start of "major combat operations."

A month of unrelenting combined U.S.-Israeli strikes appears to have significantly eroded Iran's military capabilities and killed many of its most senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died alongside dozens of top Iranian officials in a series of airstrikes on his official residence in Tehran in the opening salvos of the war.

But despite Trump's assertion that the "war has been won," Iranian forces continue to launch attacks on Israel, regional U.S. bases and American partners across the Middle East, while commercial shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, with large numbers of cargo vessels in limbo on either side of the narrow waterway at the southern entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Trump has also asserted that there had been "complete regime change," with the leaders the U.S. is now dealing with in recently announced negotiations "more moderate" and "much more reasonable," the president told ABC News' Jonathan Karl.

Trump named Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the powerful speaker of the Iranian parliament, as the direct U.S. negotiating partner, though Ghalibaf has denied the assertion.

But in Tehran, the cadre of officials – Ghalibaf among them – emerging to take the reins of power appear as committed as the slain figures they are replacing, many of them veterans of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), analysts have said.

The regime in Tehran, according to Danny Citrinowicz – the Israel Defense Forces' former top Iran researcher, now at the Institute for National Security Studies think tank in Israel – "is weaker than it was before the conflict, but it is also more radical. The IRGC has further consolidated its influence over decision-making, eroding what little internal balance once existed within the regime."

The war appears to have given Tehran long-term leverage over the Strait of Hormuz – a "weapon of mass disruption," as described by Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group during an online briefing hosted by the think tank this week.

If the Islamic Republic survives the war, and its immediate aftermath by suppressing simmering anti-regime movements, its new leaders may be emboldened to retain perceived strategic advantages, chief among them control of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts who spoke to ABC News said.

That regime sentiment seems to be crystalizing. Ghalibaf, for example, told the IRNA state news agency that Iran's strategy now rests on its control of three pillars: "missiles, the streets, and the Strait."

Inside Iran, some sense that shift. Darius – who did not wish to use his real name for fear of reprisal – told ABC News from Tehran of a growing sentiment that "the source of legitimacy for the Islamic republic is shifting" from the clerical establishment to the IRGC.

"Now, the de facto leaders of the country are the generals in the IRGC. And they are actually running the show at the moment," Darius said.

IRGC ascendant

The IRGC was formed shortly after the Iranian Revolution by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, ultimately emerging as the new Islamic Republic's primary tool for projecting its ideology and influence beyond its own borders.

The IRGC entrenched and expanded its power during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988. With its battlefield exploits and ideological zeal, the IRGC came to embody the wartime concept of "sacred defense," Johns Hopkins University professor Vali Nasr wrote in his recent book, "Iran's Grand Strategy."

Observers have long considered the IRGC to be the most powerful military, political and economic institution in Iran.

Even before the most recent U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, many experts warned that decapitation strikes or a push for regime change risked empowering the IRGC to seize the state's other mechanisms of power – though others suggested the force had no need to openly seize control, given its de facto hold over the country.

The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, served in an elite IRGC unit during the Iran-Iraq War, and analysts have suggested his candidacy was strongly supported by the force.

Mojtaba Khamenei's newly appointed military adviser, Mohsen Rezaei, was drawn from the senior ranks of the IRGC, as was the new secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who was selected to replace Ali Larijani when the latter was killed by Israeli airstrikes in mid-March.

Meanwhile, IRGC veteran Ghalibaf – who has reportedly long been close to Mojtaba Khamenei – remains alive and appears to be in a position of influence, one of the few top prewar officials to have survived the U.S.-Israeli campaign.

Inside Iran, some sense that shift. Darius told ABC News from Tehran of a growing sentiment that "the source of legitimacy for the Islamic republic is shifting" from the clerical establishment to the IRGC.

"Now, the de facto leaders of the country are the generals in the IRGC. And they are actually running the show at the moment," Darius said.

Reading the 'mosaic'

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi credited a "mosaic defense" strategy with enabling the Iranian military to launch retaliatory strikes despite the killing of so many senior military officials in the opening hours of the U.S.-Israeli campaign.

That decentralized approach also appeared to cause some tactical confusion. Araghchi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, for example, both denied Iranian responsibility for several reported Iranian drone and missile attacks in the region in the days after the war erupted.

A decapitated regime in Tehran may pose challenges to American negotiators seeking a peace deal, Citrinowicz said, telling ABC News that the killings have created a "worse" strategic situation by dispersing power.

The centralized decision-making power enjoyed by Ali Khamenei is no more, he said. "Now, how are you going to work with them? It's going to be very hard to reach an agreement with them," Citrinowicz said, referring to the newly emergent group of leaders.

Trump himself appeared to acknowledge a diffusion of power in Iran as a result of the American-Israeli assassination campaign. "We have nobody to talk to, and you know what, we like it that way," the president said earlier this month.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told "Good Morning America" this week there are "fractures" within the Iranian leadership, though he would not say with whom the administration is in contact.

Yossi Kuperwasser – the former head of the IDF's military intelligence research division – told ABC News that the emergence of hardliners "was to be expected."

"Once you eliminate Khamenei, he's not going to be replaced by some wishy-washy character, but somebody who is committed to the cause and the IRGC is going to be in charge," Kuperwasser said.

But Kuperwasser also noted that figures currently touted as Iranian negotiators, such as Ghalibaf, might not live to see the end of the war. Indeed, Larijani was often noted as among the prime negotiating candidates before his killing. "I'd guess there are going to be more eliminations," Kuperwasser said.

As the war progressed, both U.S. and Israeli officials have distanced themselves from earlier suggestions of regime change. Instead, officials refocused the strategic narrative on their ambitions to degrade Iran's conventional military – especially ballistic missile – and nuclear programs.

These targets, according to Kuperwasser, were always the Israeli priority.

"Simultaneously, we are trying to weaken the regime so as to create the conditions that can be used by the people of Iran in order to promote something that can bring about the removal of the regime from power," Kuperwasser said. But that will not necessarily occur in the short term, he added.

'Missiles, the street, the strait'

Citrinowicz said that whatever structure emerges to negotiate with the Trump administration will likely be influenced toward more hardline demands by the killing of its predecessors.

On the nuclear file, too, "it goes without saying" that Tehran's outlook will have shifted, Citrinowicz said. Before the war, Iranian leaders had already publicly committed not to pursue nuclear weapons, though Tehran was refusing to accept Trump's demands of zero enrichment. Now, Citrinowicz said, the new Iranian leadership "might find themselves rushing toward a bomb."

Iran also has more leverage in the Strait of Hormuz than it did before the conflict, even with the significant military degradation that the U.S. and Israel appear to have inflicted. Officials in Tehran have suggested that Iranian control over the strait – and the requirement for those transiting it to coordinate with Tehran and pay tolls – is the new baseline.

Rubio hinted at long-term disruption in the Persian Gulf last week. "Immediately after this thing ends, and we're done with our objectives, the immediate challenge we're going to face is an Iran that may decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz," Rubio said.

Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs think tank said during the Crisis Group briefing that Tehran will be set on a conclusive settlement, not merely a ceasefire that would allow the U.S. and Israel to rearm and resume the conflict at a later date, as was the case after the 12-day conflict in June.

"Deep inside Iran's strategic thinking, there is an understanding that ceasefires are only a means for the United States and Israel to buy time," Azizi said. While before the conflict, Tehran appeared willing to make concessions on the nuclear file and other issues, now Iranian leaders see an opportunity to achieve what they were unable to across years of negotiations.

The endgame, Azizi said, could be one in which Iran preserves "some sort of leverage" over the Strait of Hormuz or secures "substantial sanctions removal."

For its part, Citrinowicz said the U.S. appears to be scrambling. "There are so many people in the U.S. that understand this regime, but the administration is behaving like it's Venezuela. It's crazy," Citrinowicz said, referring to the American operation in January to seize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and support his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, as Maduro's successor.

Last week, the U.S. delivered 15-point plan to end the war, which was widely interpreted as a blueprint for Tehran's capitulation. Iranian demands are likewise maximalist, calling for reparations and for the U.S. to abandon its regional bases.

"Nobody's getting their wish list," Dalia Dassa Kaye of the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations said during this week's Crisis Group briefing.

In the meantime, the battlefield costs will rise and geopolitical implications deepen across the Middle East. "Even if this ends tomorrow," Kaye said, the costs have already been paid. "It's going to take years to recuperate the damage."

"This is not something you put back in a box," he added.

ABC News' Desiree Adib and Somayeh Malekian contributed to this report.

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(LONDON) -- President Donald Trump is set to address the nation on Wednesday evening with an "important update" on the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which was launched on Feb. 28.

ABC News has collated a timeline of the key events in the conflict to date.

Feb. 28: Combined U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed alongside dozens of senior political and military leaders in strikes on his office in Tehran. Iran immediately began retaliatory attacks targeting Israel, U.S. facilities and allies across the Middle East.

The opening salvo of strikes targeted Iranian government and military sites across the country, but there were allegations of collateral damage. The most significant was an airstrike on a girls' elementary school in the southern city of Minab, which Iranian state media said killed 168 people.

March 1: Six American troops were killed in an Iranian drone strike on a U.S. base in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait -- the first U.S. personnel to be killed in the conflict. Three U.S. F-15 fighter jets are also shot down by friendly fire from Kuwaiti air defenses.

The first commercial tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the beginning of Iran's efforts to choke the flow of shipping through the strategic chokepoint.

March 2: The Iran-aligned Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon launches attacks into northern Israel, framing them as retaliation for several months of Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon. Israel responded by intensifying its campaign -- including with fresh strikes in Beirut -- and launching new ground operations along the shared border.

March 4: The Iranian IRIS Dena frigate was sunk by a U.S. submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing at least 104 crew members, according to the Iranian military.

The Israeli military issued an "urgent warning" to all residents of southern Lebanon located south of the Litani River ahead of intended strikes, ordering them to immediately evacuate and head north of the river — highlighting a vast area.

March 8: Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as the country's next supreme leader, succeeding his father who was killed on Feb. 28. Mojtaba Khamenei's candidacy was reportedly backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in which the new leader once served.

March 12: A U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft went down over western Iraq, killing six airmen. Another aircraft involved in the incident was damaged but able to land safely.

March 17: Ali Larijani, the influential secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was killed in an Israeli strike in Tehran.

March 18: The Israeli military strikes the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, which is shared by Iran and Qatar. The attack signaled a move toward the targeting of energy and critical infrastructure targets, prompting Tehran to warn it would target energy targets across the Gulf.

March 20: Iran is accused of launching a missile attack targeting Diego Garcia, a U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean, around 2,500 miles from Iranian territory. The U.S. and Israel said the attacked showed that the range of Iranian missiles was longer than Tehran previously admitted.

March 22: Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on critical energy infrastructure. The president later extended his deadline.

March 24: Airstrikes targeted three major Iranian steelworks, reflecting an apparent shift in U.S.-Israeli strategy toward degrading Iran's economic base.

Iranian drones and missiles targeted the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging several American aircraft -- among them an E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft -- and wounding multiple service members.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israeli military will destroy homes in southern Lebanon, just as it did in the war-torn Gaza Strip, in a continued effort to eliminate Hezbollah militants from the area. Israel will implement "the Rafah and Beit Hanoun models," Katz said, referring to two Gaza border towns that Israel destroyed in its offensive in the Palestinian enclave.

March 28: The Iran-aligned Houthis rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile toward Israel, marking their first involvement in the conflict.

March 28: U.S. Central Command announces the arrival of some 3,500 U.S. sailors and Marines in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli, amid reports of a possible American ground operation against Iran. Around 1,500 soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division are also expected in the region.

March 30: Trump again demanded the end of Iranian harassment of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to broaden U.S. strikes to target Iranian energy facilities and desalination plants.

March 31: Katz says Israeli forces will occupy Lebanese territory up to the Litani River -- around 18 miles north of the Israeli border -- and block the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced residents.

April 1: Trump prepares for an "important" address to the nation related to the war in Iran.

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(LONDON) -- King Charles III will address a joint meeting of Congress on April 28 as part of his upcoming state visit to the U.S., according to a joint statement issued by Congressional leaders on Tuesday.

The address, the statement said, "celebrates the 250th anniversary of American independence and the enduring special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom."

The statement was issued by House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

“This year, the United States will mark the 250th anniversary of its independence. As we celebrate this historic milestone and recommit ourselves to the principles upon which our nation was founded, we also recognize that the American experiment endures in no small part because of the British tradition from which it sprang," the statement said.

"We believe an address to Congress will provide a unique opportunity to share your vision for the future of our special relationship and reaffirm our alliance at this pivotal time in history," it added.

Johnson posted about the invitation on X, noting the U.S. and U.K. "share one of the most consequential partnerships in history."

President Donald Trump said that the state visit will take place from April 27 until April 30.

Preparations for the visit come at a tense moment between the Trump administration and NATO, of which Britain is a member, over the reluctance of allies in the intergovernmental military alliance to join the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. On Wednesday, Trump said in an interview that he is considering pulling the U.S. out of NATO.

In a press conference on Wednesday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the U.K. is fully committed to NATO and that he isn't going to change his position on the war.

"I have to act in our national interests," Starmer told reporters. "This is not our war," he continued, noting "a good deal of pressure on me to change my position in relation to joining the war. I'm not going to change my position on the war."

In 2023, Congress passed legislation requiring any presidential decision to leave NATO to have two-thirds approval in the Senate or be authorized through an act of Congress.

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(LONDON) -- King Charles and Queen Camilla will make an official state visit to the U.S. this spring, Buckingham Palace announced Tuesday.

The British royals are embarking on the trip to celebrate the 250th anniversary of America’s independence and were invited by President Donald Trump, according to the palace.

In a social media post, Trump said the royal visit will take place April 27-30. It will include a banquet dinner at the White House on Tuesday, April 28, he noted.

After visiting the U.S., Charles will also visit Bermuda, a British overseas territory, making his first visit to the island as monarch.

Queen Elizabeth II made the last state visit to the U.S. in May 2007 to commemorate the 400th anniversary of the Jamestown settlement in Virginia.

Charles and Camilla‘s visit comes during a tense period amid the ongoing U.K. police inquiry into the Jeffrey Epstein files and the Iran war.

It is unclear if Charles will visit with his second son, Prince Harry, who lives in California with his wife Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex and their two children.

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(NEW YORK) -- Two additional teenagers have been detained in what authorities in France are investigating as an attempted terrorist attack in which a third teenager allegedly tried to detonate an explosive device outside a Bank of America in Paris, according to a police source close to the investigation.

The incident occurred shortly before 3:30 a.m. local time on Saturday, according to police and the French Interior Ministry. Police were patrolling the street near where the Bank of America is located in the 8th arrondissement neighborhood, authorities said.

One suspect was arrested after he allegedly left two bottles of flammable liquid attached with adhesive tape and 650 grams of explosive powder, authorities said. The suspect was attempting to set fire to the device with a lighter, according to police.

Two suspects were detained on Sunday, a law enforcement source close to the investigation told ABC News. All three suspects, including one arrested at the scene on Saturday, are under the age of 18, according to the source.

The French Interior Ministry confirmed that two additional suspects were detained in the case.

One of the teenagers detained on Sunday is believed to have fled the scene of the thwarted alleged attack after being spotted across the street from the Bank of America building allegedly filming the incident, officials said.

French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez congratulated French police for thwarting the "violent" attack in Paris overnight Saturday, where the suspect attempted to set off the explosive outside the Bank of America building in the central part of the city.

The "swift intervention" of police prevented the attack, which Nuñez described as a "violent action of a terrorist nature" in a post on X.

"Vigilance remains at a very high level," Nuñez wrote. "I commend all the security and intelligence forces fully mobilized under my authority in the current international context."

The National Anti-Terrorist Prosecutor's Office is leading in the investigation, Nuñez said.

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(NEW YORK) -- On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran in an operation targeting military and government sites that President Donald Trump has said could last as little as four weeks.

One month later, both countries remain engaged in a war that has impacted the wider Gulf region, killing thousands of people, as the Pentagon is preparing to surge thousands of troops to the Middle East, according to U.S. officials.

As the U.S. enters its fifth week of the conflict, here's a look at how we got here, where things stand and where they may go from here.

Negotiations break down 
Operation Epic Fury began months after the U.S. and Israel carried out strikes on nuclear weapons facilities in Iran, with Trump declaring at that time that the regime's nuclear capabilities had been "obliterated."'

In the weeks leading up to the Feb. 28 strikes, the U.S. tried to negotiate with the Iranian regime to reach a nuclear deal, with Trump saying he was weighing whether to strike. A day before launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran, Trump said he was "not happy" with the negotiations.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among those killed in Tehran in the initial strikes, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei later chosen to succeed him. 

Trump said at the start of the "major combat operations," which occurred without Congressional approval, that they were to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime," and he called on the Iranian people to depose the regime.

In the weeks since, more than 1,440 civilians, including at least 217 children, have died from U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran as of March 23, according to a report from several human rights groups. Iranian officials have blamed the U.S. for a missile strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed nearly 170 people. The Trump administration has said it is investigating the incident.

Regional allies attacked
Iran retaliated against the strikes with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, regional U.S. bases and multiple Gulf nations, primarily targeting U.S. interests in the region.

Thirteen American servicemembers have been killed since the war began, including seven from retaliatory strikes in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and six from an aircraft crash in Iraq. Over 300 troops have also been injured, a U.S. official said Friday.

Iran has also launched a series of retaliatory strikes against the energy infrastructure in several Gulf states after Israel hit its largest gas field -- in what one Qatari official called a "dangerous escalation."

Experts say the strikes and the threat of further attacks risk throwing global energy markets into a state of protracted chaos.

Amid the conflict, Israel has also intensified its long-running strike campaign against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and expanded its ground operations in the south of the country. More than 1,000 people have been killed and thousands more injured in Lebanon amid this escalation, according to Lebanese officials.

In response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage for the oil and shipping trades, threatening an energy crisis.

Iran has attacked several oil tankers since the war began in late February, halting nearly all shipping traffic. The supply shock has sent the price of oil surging.

Trump has threatened to attack Iran's power plants if it doesn't fully reopen the strait, since extending the deadline to do so to April 6. 

US' expansive aims
Trump's stated goals in Iran have shifted and expanded in the weeks since the conflict began, from talks of regime change and peace throughout the Middle East to, more recently, reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Among other key aims, the U.S. military has said Iran's navy and ballistic missile stocks and production capabilities have been degraded by airstrikes.

Making sure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon has been another major goal of Trump's. Iran's intent to build a nuclear weapon, according to Trump, was a central justification for the war.

Trump has suggested that Americans could go in to seize Iran's enriched uranium. Experts previously told ABC News that a large American force on the ground would likely be needed to take the nuclear material but would carry a lot of risk.

During a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the importance of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and warned that there are "further military options" possible.

Where things go from here
The White House has said "productive" negotiations have been ongoing between the U.S. and Iran, while officials in Tehran have publicly denied that any talks have taken place.

The U.S. has presented Iran with a 15-point framework for a peace deal via Pakistan, according to White House special envoy Steve Witkoff. As of Friday, the U.S. has not received a response from Iran, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Sources previously told ABC News the plan addressed Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs as well as maritime routes.

The negotiations come as the U.S. is preparing to surge as many as 5,000 troops to the Middle East, according to two U.S. officials, and the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion in supplemental funding for the war. The funding request has been met with bipartisan skepticism from some lawmakers.

Rubio on Friday declined to answer questions from reporters on whether the U.S. planned to deploy ground troops in Iran. Though he said the U.S. can achieve its goals without putting boots on the ground.

Trump, who has said he believed the war could last up to four weeks, and at other times four to six weeks, said this week that the operation is "ahead of schedule" and should end soon. Rubio told reporters Friday that the operation could end in a "matter of weeks, not months."

The Israel Defense Forces said Friday they need "a few more weeks" to fully degrade Iranian military capabilities, such as missile-launchers, a senior Israeli security official told ABC News.

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(NEW YORK) -- The Israel Defense Forces need "a few more weeks" to fully degrade Iranian military capabilities, such as missile-launchers, a senior Israeli security official told ABC News.

The Israeli security official poured cold water on the idea that a substantive deal between the United States and Iran could be reached within President Donald Trump's earlier deadline of this weekend. Trump said Thursday that he was postponing plans to target Iran's power plants until April 6 citing ongoing talks.

The Iranians "are very well-trained negotiators," the security official said. "They won't agree in a few days to end all the actions."

The senior Israeli security official, who spoke to ABC News on the condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media, said he was worried that U.S.-Iran talks could lead to a deal which does not extract significant enough concessions from the Iranians.

The Israeli security official said that if he were advising U.S. negotiators he would ask "to see actions [from the Iranians] that can be measured."

"For example, giving [up] all the 400 kilograms of enriched uranium," he added.

Iran has previously denied U.S. and Israeli accusations that it was enriching uranium to near weapons-grade level, with an ultimate aim of producing nuclear weapons.

The Israeli official spoke to ABC News on Tuesday, the day after Trump posted on his social media platform that there had been "very good and productive conversations" between the U.S. and Iran "regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East."

Iranian officials have denied -- at least publicly -- that negotiations with the U.S. are taking place. On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, told Indian TV that there were "no talks or negotiations" between Iran and the United States.

"No one can trust U.S. diplomacy," Baqaei added.

However, on Thursday a Reuters report quoted an Iranian official as saying that a U.S. proposal for ending the war was “one-sided and unfair."

The White House said in a statement that the U.S. military had been "decimating Iran's military capabilities with overwhelming firepower, skill, lethality, and force."

"The United States is winning very decisively and way ahead of schedule," a White House official said.

"We have taken major strides towards completing our military objectives, to the point that we are close to completing them," the White House added.

On Thursday, Trump announced a further pause in plans to hit Iran's power plants, again citing talks that he said were "going very well."

An Israeli military official who was authorized to speak with journalists told reporters during a briefing Wednesday that the Israeli Air Force had conducted 8,500 strikes in Iran since the end of February and had destroyed some 400 Iranian ballistic missiles and 335 missile-launchers, which equated, he said, to about 70% of Iran's overall arsenal of missile-launchers.

However, when the military official was pressed by reporters on the extent to which the IDF's military operations and goals were outstanding in the war, he declined to give details, stressing that the U.S. and Israeli militaries were "well-coordinated" and working "shoulder-to-shoulder."

"We are achieving more and more of our objectives," said the military official , who is part of the IDF division that coordinates operations deep inside enemy territory.

"War is not a one bang and it's over. It's an ongoing machine," he added.

The senior Israeli security official who spoke anonymously to ABC News said the speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, was leading the talks with the Trump administration.

Ghalibaf's apparent leading role in negotiations, which has not been confirmed by the U.S. or Iran, was first reported by Axios.

On Monday, Trump refused to confirm which senior Iranian official the U.S. was in talks with, telling reporters, "I don't want him to be killed" and referring to the Iranian lead negotiator as "a top person."

The senior Israeli security official described Ghalibaf, who is a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard's Air Force, as "an extremist" and "not Mother Teresa" and told ABC News that Israel would refrain from attempting to kill Ghalibaf while the talks continue.

"He has this kind of insurance [policy] as long as he talks," the official said, adding, "no one is secure in Iran."

Asked by a reporter if the IDF was holding off on any attempts to kill Ghalibaf, the military official did not comment directly about Ghalibaf but stressed that, in terms of its list of targets, the IDF would accept and follow any political decisions.

Earlier this week, the Trump administration sent a 15-point plan to Iran end the war, via Pakistan, which has emerged as a key mediator, two sources familiar with the plan told ABC News Tuesday.

Those sources said the plan addresses Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs as well as maritime routes but would not provide any other details including which Iranian officials the proposal was sent to. It is also unclear whether Israel has signed onto the proposal.

While diplomatic efforts continue, the Pentagon is preparing to deploy as many as 5,000 additional troops to the Middle East, with some of those forces already in transit.

The troops are a mix of U.S. Army paratroopers and Marines.

However, exactly when the troops will arrive or where they will land is not clear.

Trump has indicated that the negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials have, in part, been focused on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's stranglehold over that narrow waterway, through which around a fifth of the world's oil and gas normally passes, has caused a spike in energy prices and volatility in trading on financial markets.

The senior Israeli security official who spoke anonymously with ABC News said Israel was working on the assumption that Iran had laid naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Israeli official stressed that locating naval mines and disarming them is a "complicated" task.

"If one big oil tanker were exploded by a few naval mines, it would play havoc with markets, as well as the insurance for shipping companies, and would send the price of oil skyrocketing," the Israeli official said.

"If Iran says they have mined the Strait of Hormuz then the basic assumption we must have as commanders ... is that they have mined the Strait of Hormuz," said the Israeli military official who briefed reporters.

In possible talks Israel wants the U.S. to press Iran to give up what remains of its enriched uranium and rein in its proxies in the region, the senior Israeli security official stressed.

That Israeli official suggested that it would not be possible to seize Iran's enriched uranium by military force.

The two U.S. Marine Expeditionary Units which are being deployed to the Middle East, "don't have the engineering tools" to conduct an operation to "pull out" Iran's remaining enriched uranium from underground sites, he said.

Asked about this issue on the briefing with reporters, the military official declined to comment.

The Pentagon declined to comment about the senior Israeli official's assessment of remaining objectives in the war and the U.S. military's capabilities.

The White House said the war on Iran was "a conditions-based operation" and said it would conclude when the president "determines that our objectives are met."

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(COLOMBIA) -- An American Airlines flight attendant has been reported missing in Colombia, according to officials.

Eric Fernando Gutiérrez Molina landed on March 21 on a flight from Miami to Medellin, Colombia, according to the Medellin security secretary.

Authorities believe he may have been drugged and are investigating that claim.

He was last seen early Sunday morning after a party at a club in the Medellín neighborhood of El Poblado, with a man and a woman, according to the security secretary.

"We are actively engaged with local law enforcement officials in their investigation and doing all we can to support our team member's family during this time," American Airlines said in a statement.

A State Department spokesperson said, "We are aware of these reports and are closely tracking the situation."

"The Trump Administration has no greater priority than the safety and security of Americans, and the State Department stands ready to provide all consular assistance to Americans in need abroad," the spokesperson said.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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(LONDON) -- Transgender women athletes cannot participate in female Olympic events, the International Olympic Committee said on Thursday, as the committee announced a new policy limiting eligibility for female events to biological females.

The policy will begin for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.

The committee said the decision was "evidence‑based and expert‑informed," and "protects fairness, safety and integrity in the female category."

The IOC said eligibility will be "determined on the basis of a one‑time SRY gene screening."

The committee said "athletes with an SRY-positive screen, including XY transgender and androgen-sensitive XY-DSD athletes, continue to be included in all other classifications for which they qualify. For example, they are eligible for any male category, including in a designated male slot within any mixed category, and any open category, or in sports and events that do not classify athletes by sex."

IOC President Kirsty Coventry said in a statement that the new policy "is based on science and has been led by medical experts."

"At the Olympic Games, even the smallest margins can be the difference between victory and defeat," she said. "So, it is absolutely clear that it would not be fair for biological males to compete in the female category. In addition, in some sports it would simply not be safe."

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(LONDON) -- United Nations peacekeepers operating in southern Lebanon have been fired upon around 20 times since the resumption this month of hostilities there between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, a spokesperson for the force told ABC News.

Around 7,500 personnel from 48 countries make up the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mission, tasked with monitoring the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

UNIFIL peacekeepers have regularly been caught in the crossfire between the warring sides in recent years, with intense bouts of violence in southern Lebanon touched off by the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Iranian-backed Hamas militants into southern Israel and the subsequent war in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, which Hezbollah joined in support of Hamas.

Limited respite secured by a November 2024 ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah has now given way to another round of conflict, sparked by the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in late February. Hezbollah joined the conflict on March 2, firing projectiles into northern Israel, seemingly in support of their patrons in Tehran.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said the attacks were a response to Israeli "transgressions" since the signing of the 2024 ceasefire, which he described as "excessive."

The Israel Defense Forces said this week that the group had fired over 2,000 rockets and drones toward northern Israel during the conflict to date. A 27-year-old Israeli woman was killed by a Hezbollah rocket on Tuesday.

More than 1 million people in Lebanon have been displaced by Israel's offensive and evacuation orders, according to U.N. data. More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon in the latest round of fighting, the country's health ministry said.

Peacekeepers are now back in the line of fire from both sides. Of the roughly 20 firing incidents so far recorded since Feb. 28, UNIFIL spokesperson Kandice Ardiel told ABC News that a preliminary count found that around 60% were of unknown origin, 25% were attributed to the IDF and 15% to non-state actors on the Lebanese side -- "most likely" Hezbollah.

Four UNIFIL peacekeepers have so far been injured in two separate incidents, Ardiel said. Three of the injuries were minor and one was severe. The peacekeeper who sustained severe injuries is now in a stable condition, she said.

UNIFIL has not yet established responsibility for the incidents that caused casualties, Ardiel added. 

However, the IDF has acknowledged responsibility for one incident, when it said that on March 6 an Israeli tank mistakenly fired on a UNIFIL position, wounding Ghanaian peacekeepers.

Hezbollah is not known to have claimed responsibility for any recent attacks on UNIFIL forces.

Ardiel credited UNIFIL's security measures for the relatively low number of casualties to date.

Even the force's headquarters in the coastal city of Naqoura, she said, "has been hit with bullets, shrapnel, fragments of intercepted projectiles." On Monday, the headquarters was also struck by "a rocket fired by a non-state actor -- likely Hezbollah," Ardiel said.

UNIFIL was first deployed to Lebanon in 1978, tasked with monitoring the ceasefire that ended an Israeli incursion into the south of the country.

Since 2006, UNIFIL has been tasked with monitoring the cessation of cross-border hostilities following a major conflict between the IDF and Hezbollah and supporting the planned -- but ultimately unrealized -- Hezbollah withdrawal from the area and the redeployment of the LAF in its place. That plan was set out by U.N. Security Council resolution 1701.

The U.S.-brokered 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah restated UNIFIL's role in supporting the LAF's disarmament of all non-state armed groups -- prime among them Hezbollah -- south of the Litani River. The LAF claimed to have achieved the first phase of this plan in January, but Hezbollah's daily fire toward Israel seems to undercut those claims.

Israeli forces retained control of five positions on Lebanese territory and continued strikes against alleged Hezbollah targets all across Lebanon despite the ceasefire deal. Hezbollah was vocally critical of the continued Israeli presence and attacks but did not retaliate.

The resumption of hostilities earlier this month prompted a major new Israeli campaign. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he instructed the IDF to "accelerate the destruction of Lebanese homes in the line of contact villages, to thwart threats to Israeli communities, in accordance with the model of Beit Hanoun and Rafah," referring to Israel's destruction of Gaza towns during operations against Hamas.

Katz sent thousands of additional troops into southern Lebanon, vowing to seize the territory up to the Litani River to create what he called a "defensive buffer." The effort included the destruction of several bridges along the Litani, which Katz claimed were being used by Hezbollah.

Ardiel said the destruction of those bridges -- which she described as "vital arteries" -- would complicate UNIFIL and LAF efforts in the area.

"While peacekeepers are well-prepared and supplied and can continue daily activities, we rely on these arteries for essential logistical movements, including troop rotations," Ardiel said, urging all actors to avoid harm to civilians and damage to civilian infrastructure.

UNIFIL troops, she added, have facilitated the safe movement of around 100 civilians from dangerous areas.

UNIFIL peacekeepers remain in all their positions, Ardiel said, but, "due to the volatile and dangerous security situation, our movements are heavily restricted. We are no longer conducting patrols in the way we used to, so our monitoring is more limited than it was before."

"Our patrols are now focused on areas around our positions, to ensure our peacekeepers are safe and discourage armed groups from using our positions as cover for their activities," she added.

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(LONDON) -- The escalating Israeli operation against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon may prove to be the most intractable theater of the wider U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, analysts who spoke with ABC News warned.

But the showdown unfolding in Lebanon could pose an existential threat to both Hezbollah and the Lebanese state, experts said, with the latter having long struggled to rein in the powerful militia but now facing growing pressure -- and threats -- from Israel to do more despite the danger of civil instability.

The technocratic government that came to power in Beirut on a wave of optimism in February 2025 is now facing "the worst possible combination of factors," Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank told ABC News during a recent webinar hosted by the U.K.-based Chatham House think tank.

Lebanon "is a secondary front at the moment that is likely to burn for longer both because the Israelis see the political-military opportunity, but also the Iranians see it as a place where they can bleed and distract the Israelis," Hokayem added.

Cascading crises
Even before the latest round of violence erupted, observers were noting rising discontent with Hezbollah among the wider Lebanese population and their elected representatives. 

The recent scars of Hezbollah's activities were all too visible. On the edges of Beirut's stylish downtown area and the trendy Mar Mikhael neighborhood is the devastated port area, wrecked by a massive explosion in 2020, with efforts to apportion responsibility for the disaster allegedly repeatedly stymied by Hezbollah. While some blame Hezbollah, others blame the entire political ruling class and the systemic corruption in the country.

Villages across the Hezbollah-dominated south and east of the country lay in ruins from Israeli missiles, bombs and artillery shells fired in clashes since Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the latter's deadly surprise Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. In a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in 2024, the Israeli army partially withdrew, holding on to five positions in southern Lebanon.

Parts of Beirut's southern Dahiyeh area -- a longtime Hezbollah stronghold -- were cratered, with giant posters of its slain totemic leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in a massive 2024 Israeli airstrike on the city, seen by ABC News late last year rising above the arterial road which runs through the area from the airport to the rest of the city.

The conflict significantly degraded Hezbollah's capabilities, apparently setting the stage for Lebanon to appoint a new government with fewer ties to the group -- led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun -- after more than two years of a caretaker cabinet amid a political deadlock.

Neither were formally endorsed by Hezbollah. Aoun, the country's former army chief, and his new government said they were committed to disarming Hezbollah, appealing to foreign partners to help.

Many observers suggested Hezbollah appeared to be in a historically weak position from late 2024 into early 2026. Its patrons in Tehran were themselves weakened by confrontations with Israel and, later, the U.S. Discontent inside Iran exploded into multiple rounds of anti-government protests, with Tehran's funding and direction of foreign proxy forces a common grievance among demonstrators.

The fall of Tehran-aligned and Hezbollah-bolstered Syrian President Bashar al-Assad across the border in December 2024 robbed Hezbollah of strategic depth, vital arms smuggling routes and financial opportunities. Nasrallah -- an icon of the Iran-directed "Axis of Resistance" -- was dead, as were many of the group's most senior military and strategic minds, according to long-time observers of the group.

Meanwhile, strikes that Israel described as targeted against Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure in Lebanon continued, killing hundreds of people despite the November 2024 ceasefire deal. Hezbollah did not respond, apparently pursuing a policy of strategic patience that some observers interpreted as operational weakness.

Before the outbreak of its latest war with Israel in 2023, estimates of Hezbollah's military strength ranged from 30,000 to more than 50,000 personnel. Its parliamentary party won 15 seats in the last Lebanese legislative elections in 2022, securing around 20% of all votes to the tune of nearly 360,000 ballots, according to data from Lebanon’s Interior Ministry.

Aoun's government took some steps to curtail Hezbollah's uniquely powerful position, in which it had been able to establish -- with Iranian help -- what analysts often described as "a state within a state." 

The Lebanese Armed Forces claimed in January to have completed the first phase of the plan to disarm all non-state groups in the area south of the Litani River -- around 18 miles north of Israel's border -- as part of the 2024 ceasefire deal.

Those efforts continued after the U.S. and Israel launched their latest military campaign against Iran in late February. In early March, the Lebanese government declared all military activities by Hezbollah illegal. The army also set up checkpoints to search vehicles headed south for weapons.

But the idea of the state's open confrontation with the Iranian-backed militia group prompts fears of a slide back into the bloody anarchy of the 1975-1990 civil war that killed more than 100,000 people and devastated the young nation.

Sectarian tensions are again rising in Lebanon. Last month, Salam criticized the country's sectarian political system -- designed to ensure power sharing between the country's ethnic and religious groups -- as "a source of harm both for the state and for the citizens."

The state's forces, while popular, are broadly considered to be weak relative to other regional militaries and non-state actors. Meanwhile, despite its recent setbacks, Hokayem said Hezbollah remains "a very powerful coercive force domestically in Lebanon, where they can punish, intimidate and possibly assassinate their enemies."

Hezbollah's new leader, Naim Qassem, said in August that the group would not surrender its weapons to the state, warning there would be "no life in Lebanon" if its arms were taken by force.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we see, in addition to communal violence, more targeted hits -- including assassinations -- inside the country," Hokayem said of intensifying Hezbollah activity. "If the military, the security forces are not able to prevent that or contain this, then you can easily see a loss of trust in central institutions, which is already very low."

"Given the trajectory of events, more likely than not the state will weaken despite what some people in Washington say or would like to believe," he added.

A 'prolonged' conflict
Israeli forces are now moving deeper into southern Lebanon, with the Israel Defense Forces having issued a series of "urgent" warnings for the full evacuation of the country south of the Zahrani River, which sits around 36 miles north of the border. That order came on top of an evacuation order for all residents south of the Litani River -- 18 miles north of the border -- and for all residents in the southern Beirut suburbs.

Human Rights Watch said that more than a million people have been forced to flee their homes -- nearly one-fifth of the entire population of the country. More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli attacks in Lebanon in the latest round of fighting, the country's health ministry said.

Israel's aggressive policy in Lebanon came after Hezbollah fired on northern Israel on March 2, joining Tehran in its response to the U.S.-Israeli campaign launched against Iran on Feb. 28.

Hezbollah defied assessments it had been substantially weakened by its two-year involvement in the war in Gaza, firing rockets and drones daily toward northern Israel. 

The IDF said this week that Hezbollah had fired over 2,000 projectiles toward Israel so far. That fire has killed four people -- two civilians and two soldiers.

IDF Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said on March 22 that the Israeli operation "has only just begun," describing the nascent campaign as "a prolonged operation." As of March 24, the IDF had destroyed multiple bridges spanning the Litani River.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he instructed the IDF to "accelerate the destruction of Lebanese homes in the line of contact villages, to thwart threats to Israeli communities, in accordance with the model of Beit Hanoun and Rafah," referring to Israel's destruction of Gaza towns during the war on Hamas.

Katz said troops would seize and hold southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to create what he called a "defensive buffer."

More extreme voices have demanded a permanent occupation. Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for example, said the Litani should form "the new Israeli border," in an echo of longheld ambitions of Israeli ultranationalists.

Lebanon's president described the destruction of the bridges over the Litani and continued Israeli strikes elsewhere as a "dangerous escalation and flagrant violation of Lebanon's sovereignty." The measures, Aoun said, "are considered a prelude to a ground invasion."

But there appears little hope of relief from Beirut's two prime foreign partners -- the U.S. and France -- Hokayem said. "The Americans essentially have washed their hands of Lebanon," he said, citing frustration with the government's inability or unwillingness to rein in Hezbollah.

"In Washington there are people who have this illusion that you can break the back of Hezbollah, if only there was a bit more spine in some in Beirut," Hokayem said. "It's very difficult to see that."

Barbara Leaf, who served as the assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs under President Joe Biden, said during the Chatham House event that the U.S. had taken a "hectoring" approach with the new Lebanese government. The message, Leaf said, is, "Take care of Hezbollah, and if not, the Israelis will."

The U.S. Department of State has urged all Americans in Lebanon -- of whom there were around 86,000 in 2022, according to the State Department -- to leave the country as soon as possible.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said of the situation in Lebanon, "We're working on it very hard. We love Lebanon. We love the people of Lebanon, and we're working very hard." Hezbollah, he said, "has been a disaster for many years."

Days later, Trump again said Hezbollah has been "a big problem" that was "rapidly being eliminated" by Israeli military action.

With clear U.S. backing, Israeli leaders appear set on a decisive operation in Lebanon, which forms one theater of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's drive to create what he calls a "new Middle East" shorn of Iranian influence.

Those ambitions will require a long-term presence on Lebanese territory, Yezid Sayigh, of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center think tank in Beirut, wrote in early March. "A complementing Lebanese effort is necessary, hence the effort to force the Lebanese government's hand one way or the other," he added.

But the ongoing operation may undermine the very partners Israel needs in Beirut, Hokayem said. "A Lebanon in which so much territory is occupied will struggle to enter any kind of genuine peace negotiations with Israel," he said.

"I don't think they could be a central authority with enough strength and legitimacy," he added.

Faced with yet another national crisis, many in Lebanon are pessimistic. The country must consider "the worst-case scenarios," political scientist Ziad Majed wrote earlier this month.

This means, Majed said, huge destruction in Hezbollah's heartlands in the south, the eastern Bekaa Valley and southern Beirut combined with a military occupation blocking hundreds of thousands of displaced people from returning to their homes.

Such a scenario, Majed warned, could "lead to suffocating living crises and social and political tensions that many might exploit for political opportunism, incitement and other forms of sectarian conflict."

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